For decades, the charm of higher salaries and the promise of a better life in the United States have driven millions of professionals from India and China to pursue the "American Dream." However, a significant shift is underway. The growing middle classes in these two economic powerhouses are increasingly questioning the value of migrating to the U.S., opting instead to build their futures at home. TheBrink explores the economic, cultural, and social factors behind this trend, offering a global perspective on why the traditional path of migration is losing its appeal and what this means for the world economy.
Whats Driving the Shift
Economic Realities: The Shrinking Value of U.S. Salaries
The primary draw of migrating to the U.S. has long been the prospect of earning a dollar-based salary, often perceived as a ticket to financial success. For example, an Indian professional earning ₹20–40 lakh annually (approximately $24,000–$48,000 USD) or a Chinese professional earning $20,000 might expect to earn $80,000–$120,000 in the U.S. However, the real value of these salaries is diminishing due to several factors:
High Cost of Living in the U.S.: Major U.S. cities like San Francisco, New York, and Seattle have some of the highest living costs globally. A 2025 cost-of-living comparison shows that a $100,000 salary in San Francisco is equivalent to a $50,000 salary in Bangalore or Shanghai when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). Rent in San Francisco averages $3,500/month for a one-bedroom apartment, compared to $500–$800 in Bangalore or Shanghai.
Taxation and Expenses: U.S. federal and state taxes can consume 25–40% of income, depending on the state. Additional expenses like healthcare (averaging $10,000/year for a single person) and childcare (up to $20,000/year) further erode disposable income. In contrast, India and China offer lower tax rates for middle-class earners (10–20% in India for incomes up to ₹15 lakh) and subsidized or lower-cost healthcare and education.
Rising Incomes at Home: India’s GDP per capita (PPP) is approximately $9,000–$10,000 in 2025, while China’s is around $20,000. Middle-class incomes in both countries are rising steadily, with India’s IT sector offering salaries of ₹30–50 lakh ($36,000–$60,000) for senior roles and China’s tech hubs like Shenzhen providing comparable earnings. These incomes afford a comfortable lifestyle with domestic help, quality education, and healthcare at a fraction of U.S. costs.
U.S. living costs are 2–3 times higher than in India or China for equivalent lifestyles. For instance, a family of four needs $6,000–$8,000/month (post-tax) in the U.S. for a middle-class life, compared to $2,000–$3,000 in India or China.
Cultural and Social Trade-Offs
Migration is not just an economic decision; it involves significant cultural and social adjustments that are increasingly deterring professionals:
Cultural Dislocation: Moving to the U.S. often means leaving behind tight-knit family networks and cultural familiarity. In India and China, multigenerational households provide emotional and practical support, such as childcare, which is costly or unavailable in the U.S. Indian professionals feeling isolated in the U.S., missing festivals, food, and community ties is common.
Work-Life Balance: India and China’s urban middle class increasingly value work-life balance, with flexible work arrangements gaining traction post-COVID. In contrast, U.S. tech jobs often demand long hours, with limited vacation time (averaging 10–15 days annually compared to 20–30 in India or China).
Reverse Migration Challenges: Stories of returnees struggling to reintegrate in India or China due to infrastructure issues or cultural shifts are common, but improving urban amenities (e.g., Bangalore’s metro expansion, Shanghai’s green spaces) are reducing these concerns.
Global Perspective: Similar trends are emerging in other countries. For instance, Nigeria’s middle class is staying put due to growing local opportunities in tech and finance, while Brazil’s professionals are reconsidering U.S. migration due to high costs and visa uncertainties. This suggests a global reevaluation of migration driven by rising domestic prosperity.
Visa and Immigration Hurdles
The U.S. immigration system poses significant barriers, particularly for Indian and Chinese professionals:
H-1B Visa Challenges: The H-1B visa, critical for tech workers, has a cap of 85,000 annually, with over 200,000 applications in 2025. Indian applicants face wait times of 5–10 years for green cards due to per-country caps, creating uncertainty.
Policy Shifts: The Trump administration’s 2025 policies, including halting new student visa interviews and criticizing India’s trade practices, have heightened fears of stricter immigration rules. In contrast, Canada and Australia offer more predictable pathways, attracting Indian and Chinese talent away from the U.S.
Layoff Risks: U.S. tech layoffs in 2024–2025 (e.g., Google, Amazon cutting 100,000 jobs) have left H-1B holders vulnerable, as they must find new employment within 60 days or leave the country.
H-1B visa wait times for Indians are long, with EB-2/EB-3 green card backlogs exceeding 10 years.
Growing Domestic Opportunities
India and China’s economic growth is creating opportunities that rival those in the U.S.:
India’s Tech Boom: India’s IT sector is projected to reach $350 billion by 2026, with startups offering stock options and global exposure. Bengaluru and Hyderabad are global tech hubs, attracting MNCs, which employ thousands locally.
China’s Innovation Ecosystem: China’s tech giants (e.g., ByteDance, Alibaba) and state-backed AI initiatives provide high-paying roles. Shenzhen’s startup ecosystem rivals Silicon Valley, with lower living costs and government incentives.
Infrastructure Improvements: India’s urban infrastructure, though still many years behind, is improving with projects like the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor. China’s high-speed rail and smart cities offer a quality of life comparable to Western standards.
Global Perspective: Other emerging economies like Vietnam and Indonesia are also retaining talent due to tech-driven growth. For example, Vietnam’s IT sector grew 15% in 2025, offering salaries competitive with U.S. entry-level roles.
Lifestyle Downgrades in the U.S.
The perceived lifestyle upgrade of moving to the U.S. is overstated:
Housing: In India, a ₹40 lakh earner can afford a 2-BHK apartment in a Tier-1 city; in the U.S., a $100,000 earner struggles to buy a home in urban areas, where median prices exceed $500,000.
Domestic Help: In India and China, affordable domestic help (costing $100–$200/month) allows professionals to focus on careers and leisure. In the U.S., such services cost $2,000–$3,000/month, eating into savings.
Education and Healthcare: India’s private schools and hospitals offer quality services at low costs (e.g., $5,000/year for top schools vs. $20,000 in the U.S.). China’s public systems are heavily subsidized, reducing financial strain.
A $100,000 U.S. salary yields 30–40% less disposable income than a ₹40 lakh Indian salary after accounting for taxes, housing, and essentials.
U.S. Disposable Income: $25000, India: $32000
Global Implications
This shift has consequences:
U.S. Economy: Reduced immigration from India and China could worsen talent shortages in tech, where 60% of Silicon Valley’s workforce is foreign-born. It may also impact U.S. universities, which rely on Indian and Chinese students for revenue.
India and China: Retaining talent strengthens domestic innovation and consumption. India’s middle class, projected to reach 500 million by 2030, is a key driver of economic growth. China’s focus on self-reliance (“Atmanirbhar Bharat” equivalent) benefits from a stable workforce.
Global Talent Flows: Countries like Canada and Australia are capitalizing on U.S. immigration bottlenecks, attracting Indian and Chinese professionals with streamlined visa processes.
The decision to stay in India or China indicates a rational recalibration of the migration equation. Rising incomes, improving infrastructure, and cultural rootedness are outweighing the allure of dollar-based salaries, which lose value in the face of high U.S. costs and immigration uncertainties. This trend is not unique to India and China but signals a broader global shift where emerging economies are becoming destinations in their own right. For professionals, the choice is no longer about chasing a dream abroad but building one at home, a decision that could reshape global economic dynamics for decades to come.
-Chetan Desai (chedesai@gmail.com)
