Can India’s Explosive Turkey Boycott Trigger a Price Surge You’ll Feel?

India-Turkey Diplomatic Fallout: A Trade War in the Shadows

The world is watching as two rising powers, India and Turkey, once bound by cultural threads and economic ambition, teeter on the edge of a full-blown trade war. A storm is building-up, and it’s not just diplomatic posturing, it’s an economic shift that threatens global markets, disrupt businesses, and send prices of everyday goods soaring. What sparked this sudden fracture?

At The Brink 2028, we research into the undercurrents of this geopolitical clash, uncovering shocking truths, and consequences.

The Spark That Ignited the Fire

In May 2025, the fragile thread of India-Turkey relations snapped. The catalyst? Turkey supported Pakistan during India’s #OperationSindoor, a military strike targeting terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir following the devastating Pahalgam attack that claimed 26 lives. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan didn’t just voice support, he reportedly supplied over 350 drones and military operatives to Pakistan, escalating tensions to a boiling point. India’s response was swift and uncompromising: a call for Turkey to end Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism, met with a deafening silence from Ankara.

This wasn’t a one-off. Turkey’s long-standing stance on Kashmir, repeatedly condemning India’s policies at the United Nations, has been a festering wound. Since 2019, Erdoğan’s vocal criticism of India’s actions in Kashmir has strained ties, but #OperationSindoor was the final straw. India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a stern message: “Relations are built on mutual sensitivities.” Turkey’s refusal to respect India’s red lines has unleashed a backlash that’s shaking industries and economies.

The Boycott Blitz: A Nation United

India’s retaliation is not military, it’s economic. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), representing over 80 million traders, has spearheaded a nationwide boycott of Turkish goods and services. From marble to apples, jewellery to tourism, India is slamming the door shut on Turkish imports. Major travel platforms have suspended bookings to Turkey, citing “solidarity with the nation.” Over 2,000 cancellations for Istanbul and Baku flooded in within a week, with a 60% drop in bookings and a 250% surge in cancellations.

India imported tonnes of apples from Turkey in 2023–24, the highest ever, accounting for a significant chunk of its apple imports. Now, apple growers are lobbying Agriculture Minister to ban Turkish apples entirely. Marble, a $3,000 crore import market where Turkey holds a 30–40% share, is also under fire. Indian traders in Udaipur, a marble hub, have severed ties with Turkish suppliers, threatening a $2,500–3,000 crore hit to Turkey’s economy.

But it’s not just traders. The public is also enraged. Protests outside the Turkish Embassy in New Delhi saw effigies of Erdoğan burned, with chants demanding a complete severance of ties. A nationalist group, has vowed to end Turkey’s cultural and economic influence, from Bollywood shoots to academic partnerships with universities. This is a boycott with teeth, and it’s biting deep.

Businesses Caught in the Crossfire

Jubilant FoodWorks and Domino’s Turkey

Jubilant FoodWorks, the Indian company behind Domino’s Pizza, is feeling the heat. Its acquisition of DP Eurasia, the master franchisee for Domino’s in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, was a bold move in early 2024. But with India-Turkey tensions skyrocketing, DP Eurasia’s operations are under threat. Boycott calls are targeting Domino’s outlets in India, with social media campaigns urging consumers to ditch the chain. Analysts estimate a potential 15–20% revenue hit for Jubilant’s Turkish operations, which contribute significantly to its global earnings.

Jubilant’s exposure to Turkey could drag its stock down if the boycott gains traction. (not an investment advice)

Turkish Marble and Indian Construction

Turkey’s marble exports to India is valued at $3,000 crore annually. India’s construction boom relies heavily on Turkish marble for luxury projects, from hotels to high-end residences. But with the boycott, importers are pivoting to domestic sources or alternatives like Italy and Vietnam.

The quality of Turkish marble is unmatched, but nationalism wins over economics right now.

The shift is already causing supply chain disruptions, with marble prices in India projected to rise by 10–15% in the next six months as cheaper Turkish supplies dry up.

Tourism Takes a Nosedive

Turkey was a top destination for Indian tourists, with 287,000 visitors in 2023 spending an estimated $350–400 million. But the boycott has cratered this market. Travel agencies report a 60% drop in bookings, with cancellations spiking 250%.

Turkey’s beaches and bazaars were a draw, but now Indians are choosing Greece, Thailand, or domestic destinations like Goa.

Turkish airlines, hotels, and local businesses are bracing for a $200 million revenue loss in 2025 alone.

The Price Hike Shock: What’s in Your Basket?

The boycott isn’t just hurting Turkey, it’s hitting Indian consumers where it hurts: their wallets. Here’s a breakdown of products that can face price hikes:

Apples: With Turkish apples (160,000 tonnes annually) off the table, India will lean on costlier imports from the US or New Zealand. Expect apple prices to jump 8–12% by Q3 2025.

Marble and Construction Materials: Domestic marble is 20–30% pricier than Turkish imports, and alternative suppliers like Italy charge a premium. Construction costs for luxury projects could rise 5–10%, trickling down to higher property prices.

Jewellery and Auto Parts: Turkey’s $2,000 crore jewellery exports and $3,000 crore auto parts market are under siege. Indian manufacturers are scrambling for alternatives, potentially increasing car part prices by 7–10%.

Textiles and Engineering Goods: India’s $6.66 billion exports to Turkey, dominated by engineering goods, face retaliatory tariffs. This could disrupt supply chains, raising costs for Indian exporters and consumers alike.

This isn’t just a bilateral spat, it’s a test of India’s economic leverage.

India’s boycott could shave 0.5–1% off Turkey’s GDP, given its reliance on Indian markets.

Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan is less about ideology and more about Erdoğan’s quest for regional dominance. By backing Pakistan, he’s signaling to the Muslim world that Turkey is a counterweight to India’s rising influence. But this gamble could backfire, alienating a key trade partner. India could counter by deepening ties with Turkey’s rivals, like Armenia or Greece, further isolating Ankara.

What's Next?

The India-Turkey rift is a Pandora’s box of unintended consequences.

A New Trade Axis: India could pivot to alternative suppliers like Vietnam, Italy, or even Armenia, creating a new trade bloc that sidelines Turkey. This could reshape global supply chains, especially for marble and apples.

Turkey’s Pivot to China: With India closing its doors, Turkey may deepen ties with China via the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This could draw Turkey closer to Pakistan and China, forming a counter-axis to India’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Cultural Collateral Damage: Bollywood, once a bridge between India and Turkey, is pulling out. No more films shot in Istanbul’s picturesque streets. This cultural disconnect could erode soft power, making reconciliation harder.

Turkey’s Economic Collapse?: Turkey’s lira is already reeling, and losing India’s $10.4 billion trade market could push its economy to the brink. Possibly a 15–20% drop in Turkish exports to India by 2026 if the boycott holds.

A Game of Chess or a House of Cards?

What happens next depends on whether diplomacy will prevail or nationalism takes the wheel. India’s boycott is a masterstroke of economic warfare, but it’s a double-edged sword. Higher prices and supply chain chaos could also spark domestic discontent, especially among India’s price-sensitive middle class. Turkey, meanwhile, faces a stark choice: double down on its Pakistan alliance or seek a diplomatic off-ramp to salvage trade ties.

One wild card. The United States. With Trump’s administration allegedly brokering a shaky India-Pakistan ceasefire, could Washington mediate between New Delhi and Ankara? Unlikely, the US is too focused on China and Russia to care about India-Turkey squabbles.

Another possibility. Turkey’s economic desperation could force Erdoğan to blink. With inflation cooling but still crippling at 42.1%, and the lira down 8% since January 2025, Turkey can ill afford to lose India’s market. A quiet apology or a shift in rhetoric could de-escalate tensions, but Erdoğan’s pride makes this a long shot.

At The Brink 2028, we’re not just reporting the news, we’re peeling back the layers to reveal the forces shaping your world. This India-Turkey clash isn’t just about geopolitics; it’s also about the apples on your table, the marble in your home, and the cars you drive. It’s about the hidden costs of nationalism and the fragility of global trade. Stay ahead of the curve with our cutting-edge analysis and fearless reporting.

Subscribe to The Brink 2028 VIP Membership for exclusive insights that challenge the status quo and prepare you for what’s next.

Don’t just read the news, understand it.

-Chetan Desai (Chedesai@gmail.com)