On May 7, 2025, India launched "Operation Sindoor," a series of missile strikes targeting nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This audacious move, which killed an estimated 50-70 terrorists, was India’s response to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 civilian lives, mostly Hindu tourists. The strikes have thrust the India-Pakistan rivalry—two nuclear-armed neighbors with a history of conflict—back into the global spotlight, raising fears of retaliation and escalation.
The Spark: The Pahalgam Massacre and Its Aftermath
On April 22, 2025, seven militants armed with automatic rifles stormed the Baisaran meadow in Pahalgam, a serene tourist spot in Indian-administered Kashmir. The attackers, linked to The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), killed 26 people, including 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali citizen. Survivors reported a chilling detail: the terrorists singled out Hindu men, checking names and demanding they recite Islamic verses, killing those who couldn’t. This religiously motivated brutality, was designed to sow fear and destabilize Kashmir’s fragile tourism-driven economy.
India’s intelligence agencies confirmed Pakistan’s involvement through intercepts tracing communications to handlers in Muzaffarabad and Karachi. Forensic evidence revealed military-grade weapons and advanced communication tools, pointing to a well-funded, externally coordinated operation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, chaired an emergency meeting and vowed to “punish every terrorist and their backers.” Within days, India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, closed the Attari-Wagah border, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and canceled visas for Pakistani nationals.
On May 7, India escalated further with #OperationSindoor, launching several missile strikes on terror camps. Pakistan reported few deaths and injuries, denying involvement in the Pahalgam attack and warning of retaliation “at a time and place of its choosing.” The world now watches, holding its breath, as the specter of nuclear escalation looms.
A History of Blood
The India-Pakistan conflict traces back to 1947, when the British partition of the subcontinent birthed two nations and sowed the seeds of discord over Kashmir, claimed by both. Since then, four wars (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999) and countless skirmishes have defined their rivalry. Pakistan’s strategy of using proxy militant groups to wage a low-cost war in Kashmir emerged in the 1980s, with groups like LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) receiving alleged support from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
Major Terrorist Attacks in India
2001 Parliament Attack: On December 13, 2001, LeT and JeM militants attacked India’s Parliament, killing nine. India mobilized troops in Operation Parakram, but international pressure, particularly from the U.S., prevented escalation. The standoff cost India $800 million and 800 lives due to accidents and mine-laying, with no direct strikes.
2008 Mumbai Attacks: LeT’s 10-man assault on Mumbai killed 166 people over four days. India’s restraint, under global scrutiny, avoided military action, but diplomatic ties with Pakistan froze. Evidence of ISI involvement, including handler communications, fueled India’s narrative of Pakistan as a terror sponsor.
2016 Uri Attack: Militants killed 17 Indian soldiers in Uri, Kashmir. India responded with surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting “launch pads” in PoK. The covert operation, publicly announced, killed an estimated 38 militants. Pakistan denied casualties, avoiding retaliation.
2019 Pulwama Attack: A JeM suicide bomber killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers. India retaliated with the Balakot airstrike, using Israeli-made SPICE-2000 bombs to hit a JeM camp in Pakistan. India claimed 350 militant deaths; Pakistan reported none. A subsequent dogfight saw Pakistan down an Indian jet, but both sides de-escalated under U.S. mediation.
2025 Pahalgam Attack: The deadliest civilian attack in Kashmir since 2000, it prompted Operation Sindoor, a bolder and more public response than previous strikes, signaling India’s shift to a proactive “offensive defense” doctrine.
Pakistan’s Proxy War and India’s Evolving Strategy
Few know that Pakistan’s proxy strategy was formalized in the 1980s during the Soviet-Afghan War, when LeT was founded with funding from Osama bin Laden. The ISI trained militants in camps near the Afghan border, redirecting them to Kashmir after the Soviet withdrawal. Declassified Indian intelligence reports from the 1990s reveal Pakistan’s use of “deniable” proxies to bleed India without triggering conventional war, exploiting the nuclear umbrella to deter Indian retaliation.
India’s response evolved from restraint in the 2000s to limited strikes post-2016. The “Doval Doctrine,” named after National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, emphasizes pre-emptive action and cross-border strikes. India’s 2016 and 2019 operations used surveillance tech and weapons, a lesser-known aspect of India-Israel military ties.
India’s strikes disrupt terror networks but risk escalation. Pakistan’s denial of casualties in past strikes (e.g., Balakot) allowed de-escalation, but public acknowledgment of deaths in Operation Sindoor could force Pakistan to retaliate to save face domestically. Possible Pakistani responses:
Limited Counterstrikes: Targeting Indian military posts along the LoC, as seen in 2019.
Proxy Attacks: Increased militant infiltration in Kashmir or urban India(within).
Nuclear Posturing: Rhetorical threats to deter India, though actual use is unlikely due to mutual assured destruction.
Civilian Impact in India
One-Off Attack: A single retaliatory attack, like a bombing in a metro city, could kill dozens and disrupt daily life. The 2008 Mumbai attacks paralyzed the city for days, with economic losses estimated at $1 billion. Fear and communal tensions could spike, targeting Kashmiri Muslims, as seen post-Pahalgam.
Escalated Conflict: Prolonged LoC skirmishes or airstrikes could displace thousands in Kashmir and Punjab border areas. In 1999, the Kargil War displaced 50,000 civilians. Economic costs could soar; India’s 2001-02 standoff drained 0.4% of GDP.
Worst-Case Scenario: A nuclear exchange, though improbable, could kill millions. A 2008 study by the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War estimated 21 million deaths in a week from a limited India-Pakistan nuclear war, with global famine affecting billions due to ash clouds.
2019 Balakot Crisis
After the Pulwama attack, India’s airstrike on Balakot killed an estimated 100-350 militants. Pakistan’s retaliation—a jet incursion—downed an Indian MiG-21, capturing the pilot. U.S. and Saudi diplomacy de-escalated the crisis within days, with Pakistan releasing the pilot. Civilian impact was minimal, but Kashmir saw heightened security and internet shutdowns, costing $367 million in economic losses. The crisis showed both sides’ ability to climb down, but also the fragility of de-escalation.
The Pahalgam attack drew condemnation from world leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and leaders from Israel, Argentina, and others. However, global support for India’s strikes is nuanced:
United States: Vice President JD Vance urged restraint but expects Pakistan to curb militants. The U.S., distracted by domestic priorities, is unlikely to mediate actively, unlike in 2019.
China: Pakistan’s ally, China may provide weapons and intelligence but is unlikely to intervene directly, wary of India’s growing Quad ties.
Russia and Europe: Neutral, urging de-escalation to protect trade and energy interests.
Israel: Strongly supports India, given shared counterterrorism goals and military ties.
India’s diplomatic outreach to 100 missions post-Pahalgam suggests a strategy to legitimize strikes
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Escalation Indicators: How Did We Get Here?
Decades of mistrust, fueled by Pakistan’s proxy war and India’s muscular response, set the stage.
Pakistan’s Internal Weakness: The 2023 arrest of former PM Imran Khan eroded military legitimacy, pushing the army to flex muscle via Kashmir rhetoric.
India’s Assertive Posture: Post-2014, Modi’s government adopted a zero-tolerance policy, emboldened by global counterterrorism support and domestic Hindu nationalist sentiment.
Kashmir’s Volatility: The 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy sparked local unrest, exploited by TRF to radicalize youth social media.
Tech-Driven Terrorism: Drones, encrypted apps, and deepfake propaganda have made attacks deadlier and harder to trace.
India will maintain strikes below the war threshold but prepare for escalation.
Pakistan’s denials reduce retaliation odds, but public pressure could force action.
A Resilient Force Amid Uncertainty
India’s 600 million youth (under 25) are tech-savvy and ambitious, driving 7% GDP growth. Unlike Pakistan’s youth, facing economic stagnation (2% growth), Indian youth are globally competitive, with 1.5 million STEM graduates annually. However, communal tensions post-Pahalgam risk radicalizing some, as seen in attacks on Kashmiri students. Programs like Operation Sadbhavna, providing education in Kashmir, counter this, but scaling them will be critical and urgent.
What If?
Cyber Warfare: Pakistan could launch cyberattacks on India’s infrastructure, as seen in 2024 when 95 entities faced terror-linked hacks. India’s CERT-In is robust, but vulnerabilities remain.
Third-Party Mediation: A neutral actor like the UAE, with ties to both nations, could broker talks, a rarely discussed option.
Local Resistance: Kashmir’s Shia and Sufi communities, targeted by Sunni militants, could align with India, shifting local dynamics.
The Brink: What Lies Ahead?
The immediate future hinges on Pakistan’s response. A limited counterstrike is likely, but both sides’ nuclear arsenals enforce caution. India’s counterterrorism push—via NIA, drones, and global advocacy—aims to deter future attacks, but peace requires dismantling Pakistan’s terror infrastructure.
Stay tuned to TheBrink2028 for our premium analysis on the long-term implications, including economic fallout, nuclear risks, and youth radicalization.
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-Chetan Desai (chedesai@gmail.com)
