The U.S. dollar, the unassailable king of global trade, is losing its crown as over 90 countries pivot to local currencies. This is a strategic realignment of power, wealth, and opportunity.
Why this matters to you, your money, and your business, and how TheBrink can guide you through the storm.
In June 2025, the world is witnessing a quiet but relentless revolution: the accelerating dedollarization led by the BRICS bloc, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now joined by Saudi Arabia and a swelling coalition of over 90 nations. From Africa’s savannas to Asia’s bustling markets, countries are ditching the U.S. dollar for trade in yuan, rubles, rupees, and their own currencies. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) conducts 85% of its transactions in local currencies, while Tanzania bans dollar use in key sectors, and Saudi Arabia accepts yuan for oil. This historic pivot, fueled by BRICS Pay, a blockchain-based payment system bypassing SWIFT, and the New Development Bank’s local-currency financing, challenges the dollar’s 58% dominance in global payments. As the dollar falters, with TheBrink's earlier forecast of 9% drop by mid-2026, what’s driving this shift.
Why Dedollarize? The Motives Behind the Shift
The dollar’s reign, cemented post-World War II, is cracking under geopolitical and economic pressures. The BRICS, emboldened by U.S. sanctions on Russia and trade tensions under Trump’s administration, seek economic sovereignty. Russia’s ruble now accounts for 40% of its exports, up from 10% pre-Ukraine conflict, while India-Russia trade soared from $13 billion to $27 billion using rupees. China’s yuan, integrated into Brazil’s banking systems, fuels direct exchanges, bypassing the dollar. These moves aren’t just economic, they’re a rebellion against U.S. financial hegemony, with BRICS Pay enabling 50+ countries to trade without SWIFT’s dollar-centric chokehold.
Trump’s policies, including tariff threats and the failed USD1 stablecoin, a $5.2 billion fiasco enriching a few while fleecing investors, have eroded trust. The U.S.’s $33 trillion debt, projected to hit $50 trillion by 2030, and persistent 4% bond yields signal a weakening economy, with the OECD slashing U.S. growth forecasts to 1.6% for 2025. Meanwhile, nations like India, while publicly neutral, quietly diversify reserves, with global central banks hoarding gold at record levels, 12,000 tons purchased since 2010. This is a strategic pivot to a multipolar world where the dollar’s grip is slipping.
A Monetary Paradigm Shift
Dedollarization can slash U.S. purchasing power by 15%, eroding savings and pensions as import costs rise. They advocate gold as a hedge, noting its 30% price surge to $3,357 an ounce in 2025. A BlackRock executive, calling Bitcoin a “credible rival” to the dollar, with its $110,000 price reflect distrust in fiat currencies. Bitcoin ETFs, crossing $1 trillion in assets, signal institutional bets against the dollar.
Skeptics, argue the dollar’s demise is overstated, citing its “deep capital markets” and 97% dominance in stablecoins like USDT and USDC. Yet, even they admit cracks are forming, TheBrink predicts the Dollar Index (DXY) could hit 91 points by mid-2026, a level unseen since the pandemic. The BRICS Pay’s blockchain tech could cut transaction costs by 20%, luring more nations away from SWIFT.
The dollar won’t vanish overnight, but its supremacy is eroding, with cryptocurrencies and local currencies filling the void.
The Crypto-Power
BRICS Pay’s blockchain, while efficient, relies on energy-intensive systems. Bitcoin mining, a growing hedge against dollar volatility, consumes 150 terawatt-hours annually, more than Argentina’s electricity usage. Stablecoin transactions, pegged to the dollar or not, add another 10 terawatt-hours, with data centers driving 2.5% of global CO2 emissions. Scaling BRICS Pay to 90+ countries could spike emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030 unless powered by renewables, a challenge given China’s coal-heavy grid.
On the flip side, dedollarization could accelerate green transitions. The New Development Bank’s $1 billion in local-currency green bonds, like Brazil’s 1,041 million BRL for solar projects, reduces reliance on dollar-based fossil fuel trade. TheBrink urges BRICS to prioritize solar and wind, leveraging Africa’s untapped 60% share of global solar potential, to ensure dedollarization doesn’t trade one crisis for another.
A New Financial Reality
The impacts of dedollarization can be staggering, reshaping economies, businesses, and personal wealth:
Economic Disruption: A 9% dollar drop could raise U.S. import costs by $500 billion annually, hitting consumers with 5-10% higher prices for goods like electronics and clothing. Globally, trade in local currencies could save $200 billion in transaction fees, but volatility in emerging currencies risks $1 trillion in market losses.
Investment Shifts: Bitcoin and gold prices could surge 20-30% by 2026 as hedges, with Bitcoin ETFs already outpacing gold. Businesses face currency risks, with 60% of Asian firms reporting losses from dollar exposure in 2024.
Geopolitical Realignment: Dedollarization empowers BRICS, but U.S. sanctions could cost non-compliant nations $300 billion in trade annually. Trump’s tariff threats may backfire, shrinking U.S. GDP by 1.5% by 2027.
Environmental Costs: Blockchain-driven dedollarization could add 1 billion tons of CO2 by 2030, but green investments could create 10 million jobs in renewable energy across BRICS nations.
Subscribing to TheBrink unlocks exclusive strategies, like navigating BRICS Pay for cross-border trade or securing assets in a multipolar economy. Our reporting empowers businesses to avoid $100 million in currency losses by diversifying supply chains, while individuals can save $5,000 annually by sidestepping dollar-dependent investments.
The dollar’s era is almost fading, with 90+ countries, $27 billion in new trade, and 1 billion tons of potential CO2 emissions signaling a new order. Stay Tuned for further developments.
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-Chetan Desai (chedesai@gmail.com)
