The Shadow Tariff

The Shadow Tariff

A notification pings: US tariffs just doubled on Indian goods. Your cousin in Gujarat, who exports textiles, texts in panic—orders canceled, livelihoods in trouble. Meanwhile, in Washington, a White House adviser smirks on camera, pinning a distant war's prolongation on the prime minister.

Is this a frantic lash-out from a flailing empire, or the opening salvo in a calculated game to reshape global alliances?

Blame-shifting isn't new—it's a geopolitical staple dressed as moral outrage. In the US, leaders have historically deflected domestic failures onto neutrals or allies to rally support and extract concessions. Take Peter Navarro, Trump's trade hawk, who publicly accused India of fueling Russia's aggression by buying discounted oil, effectively bankrolling the conflict while the US foots Ukraine's defense bill.

Déjà vu, During the Cold War, the US attacked neutral nations like Sweden for trading with the Soviets, labeling them as enablers of communism to justify sanctions and isolation.

It's not about ethics; it's leverage. India's oil imports, which saved billions amid global energy spikes, are now weaponized to force alignment with Western sanctions—half the tariff hike ties are directly to this.

The "bank cycle" isn't about literal banks but the vicious loop of financial warfare in geopolitics. Sanctions cut off Russia's access to global banking systems like SWIFT, forcing it to sell oil cheap to buyers like India and China. This creates winners—arms manufacturers in the US raking in $318 billion in sales last year, up 29% from Ukraine demands—and losers, like Indian consumers facing higher import costs from retaliatory tariffs. Iran's oil sanctions in the 2010s pushed it into barter deals with China, enriching Beijing's refineries while everyday Iranians struggled with inflation over 40%. Now, apply that here: US blame creates a cycle where India pays more for energy alternatives, weakening its economy, while American firms eye the gap for exports.

Hidden signs point to strategy over desperation. Navarro's rhetoric isn't isolated; it's synced with Kevin Hassett's warnings that tariffs won't budge until India "opens markets." This matches Trump's 2018 trade war with China, where blame for job losses preceded tariffs that reshaped supply chains. Deeper: US intelligence leaks suggest internal memos pushing "secondary sanctions" on Indian firms dealing with Russia, a tactic used against North Korea's allies. It's not frantic—it's premeditated, testing India's resolve while signaling to China that multipolarity won't go unchallenged.

US geopolitics has always blended isolationism with interventionism, cycling through blame to maintain dominance. Post-WWII, the Marshall Plan rebuilt Europe as allies, but neutrals like Switzerland faced accusations of Nazi gold laundering to pull them into the fold. Fast-forward: The 1970s oil crisis saw the US blame OPEC nations for energy woes, leading to petrodollar deals that enriched Wall Street banks while saddling developing countries with debt.

What changed? The Ukraine invasion in 2022. Pre-war, India-Russia ties were "business as usual"—arms, oil, no questions. But Western sanctions failed to cripple Moscow; Russia's economy grew 3.6% in 2023 despite them, thanks to rerouted trade. Enter incentives: US arms lobbies push endless aid ($175 billion to Ukraine by 2025), while tech giants lobby for tariffs to block Indian competition in semiconductors.

Trump's "America First" revives 1930s Neutrality Acts vibes, where the US stayed out of conflicts but blamed traders for prolongation. Culture shifts too—populist narratives bury facts like EU's €21.9 billion in Russian fossil fuels imports last year, far outpacing India's, under "energy security" spin.

This is not new and is amplified by fractured global trust post-COVID, where buried narratives of Western hypocrisy (e.g., US uranium imports from Russia hitting $2.5 billion in 2025) let blame flourish unchecked.

The EU, despite sanctions, imported €8.74 billion in Russian goods in Q1 2025—oil, gas, metals—while lecturing India. China, the top Russian oil buyer, faces no such tariffs; its trade surplus with the US ballooned to $279 billion last year. During the Iraq War, neutrals like France bought sanctioned oil quietly, facing verbal rebukes but no economic hammer.

India's past experience shows tariffs hitting 1.4 billion people hard—textile workers in Tamil Nadu lose jobs, while European refineries process Russian crude rebranded as "blended" fuel.

India as a rising power gets scapegoated to deter others from strategic autonomy.

Indian diplomat S. Jaishankar counter with facts ("We're not the biggest buyer; that's China"), but the narrative sticks, breeding resentment. In the US, it unites voters against a "foreign enabler," reducing cognitive dissonance over failed sanctions. Decision-makers trap themselves—Trump's team doubles down, fearing backlash if they admit policy flops.

Vietnam in the US-China trade war. Hanoi got blamed for "dumping" goods, but used it to attract factories, growing GDP 7% annually.

The News Hides

US quietly imports Russian fertilizers and uranium—$2.5 billion in H1 2025—undermining its own sanctions narrative. This exposes selective blame, reducing credibility and pushing India toward yuan-based trade with Russia.

Internal Trump memos reveal tariffs as a "test balloon" for broader secondary sanctions on BRICS nations. Buried by optimism around peace talks, this could fragment global finance, hitting remittances for 20 million Indian diaspora.

Psychological ripple—blame normalizes "othering," with hate crimes against South Asians in the US up 15% post-tariff announcements. It desensitizes societies, making future escalations (e.g., cyber ops on Indian banks) with college and office ragging.

TheBrinksPredictive Analysis

Through backchannel diplomacy via Quad meetings, Tariffs will persist, but negotiations will yield partial relief—India cuts Russian oil 20%, gets 25% tariff rollback.

Watch out for : Falling Indian exports below $100 billion annually.

With stalled Ukraine peace, and Russia advancing. Likelihood high due to historical patterns (e.g., Iran sanctions cascade). Deeper strategy unfolds—US extends blame to full sanctions on Indian firms, fracturing US-India ties further. Watch out for : Rising anti-India rhetoric in US media; monitor socials for Navarro's posts spiking.

Special thanks to Dr. Aarav Singh, a Delhi-based analyst funded this research after watching export businesses crumble under similar tariffs in 2019—reminding him how hidden geopolitical games destroy real lives.

-Chetan Desai

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