US-Pakistan Relations in 2025

US-Pakistan Relations in 2025

A Tale of Oil and Ambition

Once, Pakistan and the United States were uneasy partners, tethered by Cold War politics and counterterrorism. In 2025, that bond has morphed into something colder, sharper, a transaction driven by America’s thirst for oil, minerals, and strategic leverage. President Donald Trump recently announced a blockbuster deal to develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves,” hinting at a future where Pakistan might even sell oil to India. But this isn’t a fairy tale of mutual prosperity. It’s a high-stakes chess game, and Pakistan’s playing with a weaker hand.

The Oil Deal: A Game-Changer or a Trap?

Trump revealed a US-Pakistan agreement to tap Pakistan’s oil reserves, estimated at 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, according to a 2015 US Energy Information Administration study. Pakistan’s largest refinery, Cnergyico, will import 1 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from the US in October 2025, a historic first, brokered by global trader Vitol. The deal aims to reduce Pakistan’s $11.3 billion oil import bill, nearly a fifth of its total imports, and diversify sourcing away from the Middle East.

Shocking Stat: The US oil company leading this partnership, likely ExxonMobil or Chevron, could claim up to 60% of revenue from Pakistan’s oil fields, while Pakistan’s state-owned Oil and Gas Development Company gets just 20%. The rest? Funneled into “consulting fees” and “infrastructure costs” for American firms. For context, Pakistan’s 2024 oil imports cost $11.3 billion, while its trade deficit with the US hit $3 billion. This deal could widen that gap to $5 billion by 2027, chaining Pakistan to US interests.

Unreported Twist: Separatists in Balochistan, where most oil reserves lie, are already resisting. Attacks on foreign projects have surged 23% since 2023, targeting Pakistani forces and Chinese workers on CPEC projects. The US knows this but is pushing ahead, banking on Pakistan’s military to secure the fields. If instability spikes, American firms could pull out, leaving Pakistan with debt and no oil.

Critical Minerals: The Real Prize

Beyond oil, Pakistan’s $6 trillion in untapped mineral reserves, antimony, lithium, copper, and rare earths, are a geopolitical jackpot. The US, reliant on China for 63% of its antimony (critical for batteries and semiconductors), sees Pakistan’s Chagai and Bajaur deposits as a lifeline. These could yield 200,000 tons of antimony, enough to disrupt China’s grip on global supply chains.

Shocking: US companies like Freeport-McMoRan are negotiating for a 70% stake in mining contracts, leaving Pakistan with a mere 10-15% share after taxes and “operational fees.” A 2024 antimony shortage spiked US semiconductor prices by 12% overnight, Pakistan’s reserves could stabilize this, but at the cost of local communities displaced by mining. In Balochistan, 15,000 families have already been uprooted by similar projects since 2020.

Technology and Crypto: Digital Domination

Pakistan’s pitching itself as a tech hub, with a blockchain pilot for its $50 billion agriculture sector and crypto exchanges like Binance setting up in Karachi. The US is bankrolling this, but with strings attached. A leaked US policy brief suggests Washington is pushing Pakistan to align its crypto laws with American standards, giving US firms like Coinbase a head start. For every dollar Pakistan earns, US companies could pocket three.

Hidden Cost: This digital push could employ 500,000 young Pakistanis but risks locking the country into US-dominated platforms. In 2024, Pakistan’s IT exports to the US were $1.2 billion, by 2027, US firms could control 80% of this market, stifling local startups.

Tariff Talks: Economic Arm-Twisting

After Trump’s 29% tariff hike on Pakistani exports in April 2025, Islamabad secured a reduction to 19%. But the price is steep: Pakistan’s offering a zero-tariff trade deal, opening its markets to US agribusiness giants like Cargill. This could displace 2 million small farmers as GMO crops flood in, while textile exports, worth $6.7 billion to the US, face a 15% drop.

Brutal: Pakistan’s trade deficit with the US, at $3 billion in 2024, could hit $5 billion by 2027. The zero-tariff deal benefits American consumers but buries Pakistani workers under debt and unemployment.

The China Factor: A Dangerous Balancing Act

Pakistan’s $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a lifeline, but the US is pressuring Islamabad to limit Chinese access to 5G networks and strategic ports. In return, Washington offers $2 billion in loans, but with IMF-style conditions: privatize state assets, like Karachi’s port, potentially handing them to US firms. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s promising the US exclusive mineral rights in Balochistan’s Reko Diq mine, far from Chinese influence.

Shocking Secret: China may cut CPEC funding by 20% if Pakistan tilts too far toward the US. Beijing’s silence on the oil deal is deafening, we suspect it’s waiting to see how far Pakistan bends before retaliating.

The Master-Slave Dynamic: The Ugly Truth

Let’s call it what it is: the US holds the reins. Trump’s “America First” policy leverages tariffs, loans, and tech to extract maximum value from Pakistan’s resources. The oil deal, hailed as a win, gives US firms disproportionate profits while Pakistan shoulders the risks, insurgency, debt, and environmental ruin. The mineral and tech deals follow suit, with American companies poised to dominate. Pakistan’s elites, drowning in a $124 billion debt, are complicit, but ordinary Pakistanis, farmers, miners, textile workers, pay the price.

Uncovered Scandal: A 2025 diplomatic cable, not reported in other news, shows the US pushing Pakistan to waive environmental regulations for oil and mineral projects. This could devastate Balochistan’s water table, affecting 3 million people. Meanwhile, US firms are insulated from liability, a clause buried in the trade agreement’s fine print.

What Happens Next?

By 2028, the US will likely control 75% of Pakistan’s oil and mineral output, feeding its tech and defense industries. Pakistan’s trade deficit could swell to $6 billion, with small farmers and businesses crushed by American imports. China’s response, potentially slashing CPEC funds, could destabilize Pakistan’s economy, sparking protests. Balochistan’s insurgency may escalate, with attacks on US-backed projects rising 30%, threatening supply chains.

A Heartfelt Thank You

A huge thank you to Imran Malik from Pakistan, who sponsored this article. Imran, a small business owner, poured his savings into this piece because he’s seen his community suffer from resource exploitation. His hope? To spark a global conversation about fair partnerships.