The Global Decline of Organic Farming

Organic farming, once hailed as the cornerstone of sustainable agriculture, is facing a global reckoning. While the sector saw explosive growth in the early 2000s, global organic farmland increased by over 400% and retail sales by 700% from 2000 to 2021 but our recent data reveals a troubling slowdown. In the U.S., certified organic acreage dropped by 11% between 2019 and 2021, and similar declines are seen emerging worldwide, from Europe to Asia.

The Global Picture: Data and Trends

United States: A Sharp Reversal

U.S., saw the organic farmland peak at over 5 million acres in 2019, representing 1% of total farmland but 3% of farm receipts due to premium pricing. However, the 11% acreage decline by 2021 reflects mounting challenges. Certification costs, intensified by post-2018 fraud scandals and mounting costs, have deterred small farmers.

Europe: Stagnation Amid Ambition

Europe, with 17.1 million hectares of organic farmland in 2020 (over 10% of total agricultural land), saw robust growth of 8% in 2021. Yet, 2022 data indicates a slowdown, with some countries like France reporting static or declining organic areas. The European Commission’s Farm to Fork Strategy aims for 25% organic farmland by 2030, but inflation and high food prices in 2022 led to reduced consumer spending on organic products. Imports also dipped slightly, though cereal and oilseed imports rose, signaling market stagnation. Countries like Portugal and Greece show promise, with exceptional growth in 2022, but geopolitical conflicts in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine have reduced certified organic land in Eastern Europe.

Africa: Growth with Constraints

Africa reported 2 million hectares of organic farmland in 2020, a 7.7% increase from 2019, with Tunisia leading at over 290,000 hectares. However, the sector remains export-driven, focusing on nuts, olives, and coffee. Certification costs and limited domestic demand hinder growth. Initiatives like the Ecological Organic Agriculture Initiative

(EOA-I) have reached 1.76 million smallholders, but scaling organic farming requires more investment in education and infrastructure.

Asia: Mixed Signals

In Asia, organic farming is receding in some regions. India, a former organic leader, saw declines due to lower yields (20-25% less than conventional) and high certification costs. Kazakhstan, with 200,000 hectares certified organic, has untapped potential but lacks efficient technologies. Meanwhile, China’s organic sector grows modestly, driven by no-till and multiple cropping practices that boosted net ecosystem productivity by 17.02% in major grain-producing areas in 2020.

Global Market Dynamics

The global organic market, valued at $230.19 billion in 2025, is projected to reach $365.84 billion by 2029 at a 12.3% CAGR. However, growth slowed in 2021 and 2022 due to inflation, high food prices, and weakened consumer demand. While the U.S. and Canada saw retail sales rise by 4.4% and 8.7% respectively in 2022, many European markets declined. Consumers, facing a cost-of-living crisis, shifted to discounters, boosting organic sales in these channels but not overall market growth.

Drivers of Decline

1. Economic Pressures: Rising input costs—fertilizer prices surged 60% from 2020 to 2022—and high certification fees strain small farmers. Organic products’ premium prices (often 20-50% higher) are less affordable amid inflation.

2. Labor Shortages: Organic farming’s labor-intensive nature clashes with a global decline in agricultural workers. In the U.S., farmers struggle to find workers willing to learn complex organic systems.

3. Lower Yields: Organic yields are 20-25% lower than conventional, raising concerns about scalability. There are rising fears that organic farming cannot feed a projected 9.7 billion people by 2050 without habitat destruction.

4. Regulatory Burden: Stricter regulations post-fraud scandals increase compliance costs, deterring farmers. In Europe, varying standards complicate certification.

5. Consumer Shifts: Health-conscious consumers still demand organic, but economic pressures push many toward cheaper conventional options. Large corporations entering the organic market dilute its artisanal appeal.

Future Effects Based on Current Trends

1. Market Polarization: By 2030, the organic market may split into premium, niche products for affluent consumers and mass-produced organic goods by corporations like Nestlé. Small farmers risk being squeezed out unless supported by subsidies or cooperatives.

2. Environmental Trade-offs: Organic farming’s lower yields could lead to increased land conversion, reducing biodiversity. A 2019 study warned that a full shift to organic could raise greenhouse gas emissions due to expanded farmland needs. Conversely, sustainable practices like no-till could mitigate impacts if adopted widely.

3. Policy Challenges: Achieving ambitious targets like Europe’s 25% organic goal will require significant subsidies and training programs. Without these, organic farmland may stagnate or decline further, especially in developing regions.

4. Technological Adaptation: Innovations like precision agriculture and CRISPR could boost organic yields, but their integration faces resistance due to organic standards banning GMOs. Farmers adopting hybrid approaches (e.g., no-till without certification) may outcompete traditional organic farms.

5. Food Security Risks: If organic farming cannot scale, reliance on conventional agriculture will grow, potentially exacerbating environmental degradation. Climate change, already cutting crop yields by 5.4% globally, adds urgency to balancing yield and sustainability.

The global decline of organic farming reflects a collision of economic realities, labor shortages, and consumer shifts. While the sector still holds promise, projected to reach $365.84 billion by 2029, its growth is faltering in key regions like the U.S. and parts of Europe.

For TheBrink2028 members, the path forward lies in embracing hybrid farming models, advocating for supportive policies, and investing in high-potential regions like Africa. As climate change and food security challenges intensify, organic farming must evolve to remain a viable pillar of sustainable agriculture. The question is not whether organic can survive, but how it can adapt to feed the hungry, warming world.

-Chetan Desai (chedesai@gmail.com)